First Oil: OTC soldiers on for another year

KURT S. ABRAHAM, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF & CHIEF FORECASTER

Yes, folks, the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston has come and gone for yet another year. On balance, the event was okay, although discussing it requires splitting comments into three parts. Before I go further with this discussion, let me preface my remarks by saying that I truly believe in the mission and worth of OTC. I want to see it succeed. And I speak from the perspective of having attended several decades of consecutive OTCs.

Fig. 1. Guyana’s President, Irfaan Ali, addressed attendees on the morning of Day 1 at OTC. Image: OTC.

Now, first, the good part—the conference portion of OTC was its usual competent, comprehensive collection of excellent keynote speakers, topical panels and technical presentations. Some of the sessions that I attended and found useful were the May 4 keynote speech by Guyana’s President, Irfaan Ali (Fig. 1) and the three-part Canadian session, with the last portion featuring Nova Scotian Premier Tim Horton and Jim Keating, CEO of Oil and Gas Corporation of Newfoundland and Labrador, Fig. 2. Other helpful sessions were the Rig Automation discussion (morning of May 5), along with the Executive Dialogue panel on Venture Capital and Technology, featuring Kamal Anbarci, Managing Executive, Chevron Technology Ventures; and George Coyle, Managing Partner, Energy Innovation Capital.

Additional sessions that I attended and found useful were the Wednesday morning keynote on Venezuela by Luis Pacheco of Rice University; a very distinguished panel on the 40-year Evolution of Deepwater Floating Production Platforms in the Gulf of America; and The Future of the Gulf of Mexico: Developing the Paleogene. It’s funny how the two latter items’ titles illustrate the ongoing dilemma on how to refer to that large body of water adjoining the southern U.S.

Fig. 2. A highlight of the afternoon-long Canadian session on Day 1 at OTC was the discussion about investment opportunities between Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston (left) and Jim Keating (right), CEO of Oil and Gas Corporation of Newfoundland and Labrador. Image: OTC.

A special shout-out goes to our editorial advisor, Art Schroeder, President of Energy Valley, Inc., and Co-Founder, Safe Marine Transfer LLC, who did yeoman service on the first day of OTC, chairing and moderating three panels, back-to-back-to-back, Fig. 3. The panels were during late morning and through the afternoon, including Subsea Tie-backs, Government and Industry, and Subsea Processes in Offshore. The panels covered 5 ½ hours, combined. Now, that’s stamina!

Second, we have the not-so-good part. In general, this refers to the exhibition portion of OTC. For several years now, this event has been losing exhibitors, particularly among the larger service companies, as well as a few operators. I’ve heard varying reasons from a few companies as to why they’ve quit participating in the exhibition, as well as concerns from firms that are still exhibiting. I’m not going to go into those reasons and concerns here, but suffice to say, OTC better get cracking on finding ways to bring back the exhibitors that have been missing.

Fig. 3. Art Schroeder, President of Energy Valley, Inc., and Co-Founder, Safe Marine Transfer LLC, as well as a World Oil editorial advisor, mans the podium during one of three OTC panel discussions that he chaired/moderated. Image: OTC.

Third, and last, we have a couple of really ill-advised items that need not be repeated. One of these is the General Session Stage in Exhibit Hall A of the NRG Center. I realize that the good folks at OTC were trying to utilize the space available to them as efficiently as possible. Hence, they thought that creating a large seating area with a stage next to the eastern edge of the exhibition area would be a good idea. Unfortunately, that idea didn’t work so well in practice. The sound system for this area was inadequate—a number of people that I talked to, who sat through one or more sessions in this area, said that they had trouble hearing, even the ones sitting close to the stage. Furthermore, the ability to hear was compromised by noise coming from the exhibition stands closest to the stage.

The other feature of OTC 2026 that ought not be repeated is the Global Energy Suites area, which was on the far western edge of the exhibition area. It featured just six well-known companies, and it was labeled as “an exclusive, invite-only suite area for private, high-level meetings and presentations. Having walked by this area a number of times, I’m really not sure how much activity was going on in there. And it does prompt the question, “why would you cut yourself off from about 85% to 90% of all OTC attendees?”

Fig. 4. After enjoying some very high attendance 12 to 14 years ago, the number of OTC attendees has slipped consistently, save for a brief period coming out of the Covid lockdowns. Chart: World Oil.

In any case, I am concerned for OTC’s future. To my surprise, the OTC staff did announce that attendance this year was “nearly 25,000.” This compares with 2025, when OTC did not announce an attendance figure, but it was generally thought to be close to 30,000. If so, then the same fate has happened to OTC as happened to Offshore Europe in Aberdeen, where attendance last September dropped from 30,000 in 2023 to 25,000 in 2025. Take a look at Fig. 4, which shows OTC attendance over the last 15 years. It is a nearly consistent downward slide, save for the initial recovery period of three years after the Covid-caused cancellation of OTC in 2020. I realize that there has been quite a bit of consolidation in the last 15 years, but offshore activity, particularly deepwater projects, is on the upswing. One would hope to see at least some mild improvement in the numbers for attendees and exhibitors. Hopefully, someone out there has some answers.

U.S. military effort in Middle East buoyed by domestic oil production. One thing that I haven’t heard mentioned very often is how bountiful U.S. oil production is enabling the Trump administration to carry out its Middle Eastern military operation without jeopardizing fuel supplies for U.S. citizens and companies. Right now, U.S. output is running between 13.6 MMbopd and 13.7 MMbopd. That’s quite a luxury for this administration to enjoy while conducting its military agenda. Just think—back in 2008, just 18 years ago, U.S. oil production bottomed out at 5.0 MMbpd after falling consistently for 16 years. And then it was another five years before U.S. output broke out over 7.0 MMbopd in 2013, spurred by the shale revolution. Can you imagine the U.S. carrying out today’s military operation during that era, given the dependence on foreign oil imports?

It was also U.S. oil production that enabled the Allies to prevail in World War II. In 1941, when the U.S. entered hostilities, the country’s production rate was 3.85 MMbopd. By 1945, the year the war ended, this figure had risen to 4.70 MMbopd. Mind you, global oil production in 1941 was 6.09 MMbopd, and it was about 7.65 MMbopd in 1945. So, this means that U.S. output represented 63% of global production in 1941 and 61% in 1945. This energy dominance (we’ve heard that term again lately) is cited as a major factor in the Allies prevailing in WWII.

An ill-advised decision by Trump in Texas politics. Most of the time, U.S. President Donald Trump makes reasonable, logical decisions on a wide range of policy and political decisions. But every once in a while, he fails to hit the mark. This is the case in the Texas primary run-off election that will occur on May 26, in which Trump has inexplicably endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn. This choice was made despite Paxton’s very dubious private life and related scandals, and never mind that he was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023, albeit acquitted by the Texas Senate in September 2023.

Cornyn is clearly the more qualified candidate, and he is probably in sync with Trump 97% of the time. Apparently, that wasn’t good enough, where Trump lately is demanding 100% adherence to his stands and policies. But he has now thrown a lot of ammunition to the Democrats (who, even in Texas, have no great love for our industry), and he has put this Senate seat into play. It’s not good logic.

IN THIS ISSUE

Special focus: Completion Technology. We have several articles in this month’s lead theme. An item authored by a ShearFrac expert discusses a scalable approach to fracture diagnostics, where a surface-based pressure signal analysis provides real-time insights during hydraulic fracturing. Meanwhile, two authors from Halliburton describe how simplified intelligent completion architectures improve zonal control economics. Finally, in an interview piece, a Baker Hughes vice president discusses how upstream electrification continues to progress apace, as it helps to provide simplification of completion systems, reliability of production operations and cost reductions in the field.

EOR/IOR. Two authors from Locus Bio-energy describe how biosurfactants are having a moment in the upstream technical spotlight. They discuss the physics behind why biosurfactants work and where they are effective. Biosurfactant chemistry is gaining favor among many operators for various reasons, including their ability to reduce operational complexity and improve efficiency.

Management Issues: Interview with Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston. In this exclusive interview, the Premier explains how he aims to revive this East Canadian province’s oil and gas activity. After a long period in the regulatory “wilderness” caused by former Canadia Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Nova Scotia is taking advantage of a more pragmatic federal attitude as it makes up for lost time in developing its oil and gas potential.