Trump's Arctic Refuge lease sale tests industry interest in Alaska drilling
(Bloomberg) – President Donald Trump vowed to reopen Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling as he seeks to make tapping the state’s vast natural resources a key part of his energy agenda.
Now comes the test of the oil industry’s appetite to drill in the rugged frozen tundra, long prized for its oil and gas potential but burdened by political uncertainty, environmental opposition and logistical challenges. The Trump administration is opening sealed bids for nearly 690,000 acres of oil and gas drilling rights in the refuge’s coastal plain starting at 10 a.m. Alaska time on Friday.
The sale is the Interior Department’s first in the refuge since lifting drilling restrictions imposed by former President Joe Biden. It’s also the first of four lease sales required under Trump’s tax-and-spending law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which mandates at least four auctions in the area by 2035.
Trump signed legislation during his first term ending a four-decade ban on energy development in the refuge, which is estimated to contain as much as 11.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil. The protected area occupies a section of northeastern Alaska roughly the size of South Carolina.
Major oil companies largely steered clear of the two lease sales that followed. An auction held weeks before Trump left office in January 2021 drew bids from two oil developers and Alaska’s state-owned economic development company. A second sale in January 2025 under the Biden administration resulted in zero bids, though oil industry representatives and Alaska officials argued restrictive lease terms artificially discouraged interest.
Some analysts are skeptical.
“Production will be challenging and the prospect that permits will be canceled as soon as a new administration takes over is likely given that this is an easy way for a new administration to make a show of its environmental commitment,” said Ellen Wald, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and the president of Transversal Consulting. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see greater interest now than we would have had this lease sale taken place in January.”
Still, a March lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska drew a record $163 million in bids from established operators like ConocoPhillips, as well as companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., which last drilled an exploratory well in the state in the early 1990s. Shell Plc, which abandoned Arctic exploration after a costly unsuccessful search for crude waters north of Alaska, partnered with Repsol SA to secure over 40 leases.
Among those that have indicated interest in Friday’s sale is the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, the state’s economic development agency. The authority was the top bidder in the refuge’s 2021 lease sale and recently authorized millions of dollars to participate again. The other participants in the 2021 auction, Knik Arm Services LLC and Regenerate Alaska Inc., each secured one lease.
Environmental groups and some indigenous communities, including Gwich’in, which consider the coastal plain sacred, argue drilling threatens Arctic foxes, polar bears, caribou, musk oxen and migratory birds.
“The diverse and sacred landscape of the Arctic Refuge is unlike any other and should never be sacrificed for oil and gas drilling,” said America Fitzpatrick, a program director with the League of Conservation Voters. “Any companies considering drilling in the Arctic Refuge would be doing so against the majority of people who support protecting this critical landscape.”
Meanwhile, local leaders, including those in Kaktovik, the only village within the refuge, support development, arguing it’s necessary for the region’s economic well-being.
Alaska crude production has steadily declined from a peak of 2 MMbpd in 1988 to roughly 417,000 bpd in March, according to the EIA. The agency projects output will rise to 450,000 bpd this year and 500,000 bpd in 2027 as new developments begin producing.
