Strait of Hormuz oil flows to recover slowly despite ceasefire, analysts say
(WO) - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to recover gradually following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with analysts at Macquarie pointing to logistical constraints, geopolitical risks and a large backlog of stranded crude as key limiting factors.
While the two-week ceasefire has eased immediate concerns over a prolonged supply disruption, visibility on a full resumption of flows remains limited. Macquarie analysts said Iran is likely to retain leverage over transit through the strait during the truce, with shipping volumes closely tied to broader political developments.
Even under an improving scenario, normalization is likely to take several weeks. An estimated 136 million barrels of crude and refined products remain stranded in the Gulf, creating a backlog that will take time to clear.
The pace of recovery will depend in part on tanker movements. Analysts said inbound ballast vessels will serve as a key signal that shipping activity is stabilizing, though operator risk appetite — rather than insurance availability — may prove the primary constraint in the near term.
Once flows begin to resume, Macquarie expects a phased recovery. Initial increases in shipments could occur within two to four weeks, followed by a further ramp-up toward more normal levels over an additional two to four weeks, assuming ceasefire conditions hold.
Onshore storage may help offset delays in upstream restarts, though some oilfields are expected to face challenges returning to full production rates. In parallel, refining operations across the region are also working to recover from outages.
Approximately 2 MMbpd of Middle East refining capacity has been shut in due to damage, with Macquarie estimating that around 80% of this capacity could return within two months, followed by additional time to stabilize operations. Meanwhile, up to 3 MMbpd of reduced refining runs, primarily in Asia, could normalize within one to two weeks after crude flows resume.
Looking ahead, Macquarie analysts say a “new normal” for Hormuz transit cannot be ruled out, including the potential for Iran to exert greater control over shipping flows. Reports have suggested the possibility of a tiered system, with preferential access for certain countries and additional costs or restrictions for others.
While such a scenario would introduce new complexities, market participants note that global oil trade has previously adapted to sanctions and disruptions affecting flows from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains fluid. Ongoing regional tensions, unresolved political issues and operational risks continue to cloud the outlook, leaving the pace and stability of a full recovery in global energy flows uncertain.
Map source: Global Energy Infrastructure
