Energy supply disruptions from Middle East war to persist, IEA and IMF warn

(WO) — The International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have warned that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving sustained disruptions across global oil and gas markets, with impacts expected to persist even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.

In a joint statement following a coordination meeting, the institutions said the energy shock is “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” with the most severe impacts falling on energy-importing and low-income countries.

The conflict has pushed oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices higher, raising concerns over broader economic effects, including inflation, food security and job losses. At the same time, some oil and gas producers in the region have seen export revenues decline due to disrupted shipping and infrastructure damage.

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints—have yet to fully normalize, the organizations said. Even after flows resume, global commodity supplies are expected to take time to recover, with prices likely to remain elevated in the near term.

The agencies also warned that supply disruptions could lead to shortages of key inputs across multiple industries, compounding pressures on global energy systems and economic activity.

The IEA, IMF and World Bank said they are coordinating closely to monitor developments and support affected countries, including through policy guidance and financial assistance where needed.

The statement comes ahead of the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, both expected to provide further insight into the evolving impact of the conflict on global energy supply and demand.

Image: International Energy Agency (IEA)