API: Venezuela hurdles show why U.S. supply anchors global markets
WASHINGTON (WO) — Venezuela’s potential reentry into global oil markets highlights a central lesson for the energy industry: reserves alone do not guarantee supply, and governance failures can sideline even the world’s largest resource bases, leaders at the American Petroleum Institute said Monday.
During a press call previewing API’s 2026 State of American Energy event, API President and CEO Mike Sommers framed Venezuela as both a cautionary tale and a long-term opportunity—one that will take time, capital and policy reform to meaningfully affect global balances.
“Venezuela sits on some of the largest oil reserves in the world,” Sommers said. “But today it produces less oil than North Dakota. That demonstrates a simple truth: energy strength requires good governance, stability and policies that allow long-term investment.”
Sommers said years of corruption and contract seizures devastated Venezuela’s upstream sector, sharply reducing output and eroding investor confidence. While the Trump administration has signaled interest in reopening the country to U.S. oil companies, Sommers emphasized that significant prerequisites remain before capital flows at scale.
Those include contract sanctity, rule of law and security for U.S. workers—conditions Sommers said are essential for companies considering a return after nearly two decades away.
Limited near-term barrels, long-term implications
Sommers cautioned that Venezuela is unlikely to deliver large volumes quickly, particularly from the capital-intensive Orinoco Belt, even if sanctions are eased. Some incremental production could emerge sooner from Lake Maracaibo, where Chevron already operates, but rebuilding the sector will take years.
At the same time, Venezuela’s struggles underscore how dramatically global markets have shifted. Sommers noted that U.S. oil and gas production now exceeds that of Iran and Venezuela combined by a wide margin, helping push Middle East imports to generational lows and strengthening market resilience during geopolitical shocks.
“Today’s markets are far more resilient because the United States is the world’s largest energy producer,” he said.
Broader market context: demand still rising
API leaders said Venezuela’s situation is unfolding against a backdrop of record global demand growth, not oversupply. Dustin Meyer, API’s senior vice president of policy and economics, said oil, natural gas, LNG and electricity consumption all reached new highs last year.
“The idea that demand had peaked has collapsed under the weight of reality,” Meyer said, adding that Venezuela’s oil-heavy resource base does little to alter the strong outlook for U.S. natural gas production, particularly for LNG exports and power generation.
Strategic takeaway
Together, API said, Venezuela and recent Middle East developments reinforce the same message for policymakers and investors: reliable supply depends on stable policy, infrastructure and market-driven investment—not political intervention.
“Energy strength doesn’t happen by chance,” Sommers said. “It’s the result of choices.”
API will expand on these themes Tuesday at its 2026 State of American Energy event in Washington, where geopolitical risk, rising demand and upstream investment will be central topics.
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