Bakken oil production signals slowdown as key pipeline flows decline
(Bloomberg) – Oil output from the Bakken, the second-largest U.S. shale field, is showing signs of a slowdown as flows on a key pipeline out of the region decline.
The Dakota Access Pipeline — running from the Bakken in North Dakota to a crude terminal in Illinois — carried about 542,000 barrels of oil a day in August, down from 566,000 in July and a 2025 high of 588,000 in January, according to Wood Mackenzie. Preliminary September volumes have slipped even further, the firm said. The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of 750,000 barrels a day.
Production from the Bakken had been expected to rise heading into late 2025 and early 2026, and analysts were projecting higher utilization on Dakota Access and other conduits out of the region. But weaker oil prices and rising competition from Canada have contributed to slower drilling in the region, with the basin’s rig count dropping from about 35 in January to about 30 by mid-year, according to East Daley Analytics.
The Dakota Access Pipeline was about 82% utilized as of April 2024, and the rate was poised to increase through 2025, East Daley said. That outlook is now softening. Total output from North Dakota slid to 1.15 million barrels a day in June, down 1.6% from January, according to US government figures.
“There’s a lot of spare capacity on that pipe — it’s flowing pretty empty,” said Gage Dwan, an energy analyst East Daley. “We have our production model going down through the rest of the year and through part of 2026.”
Canadian crude production ebbed early in the summer as wildfires disrupted output and oil sands operations performed maintenance, but output has ramped back up since then. Rebounding Canadian production and the end of maintenance season for US refiners later in the year could crowd US pipeline markets and further weigh on Bakken volumes.
Dakota Access is owned by a consortium that includes Enbridge Inc., Marathon Petroleum Corp., Phillips 66 and Energy Transfer LP, which operates the system.
