ExxonMobil raises 2030 plan, lifts upstream outlook without boosting capital

(WO) - ExxonMobil has raised its corporate outlook through 2030, increasing expected earnings and cash flow growth without raising capital spending, driven by stronger upstream performance, lower operating costs and continued gains from advantaged assets. 

The supermajor now expects $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, up $5 billion for each metric versus its prior plan, based on constant prices and margins. Return on capital employed is projected to exceed 17%, supported by structural cost savings that have been expanded to $20 billion versus 2019 levels.

Upstream operations account for a significant share of the revised outlook. ExxonMobil expects more than $14 billion in upstream earnings growth by 2030, a $5-billion increase from earlier guidance, as production ramps up in the Permian basin, Guyana and LNG projects. Total upstream output is projected to reach 5.5 MMboed by 2030, with advantaged assets contributing approximately 65% of total volumes.

Permian basin growth remains central to the strategy. ExxonMobil now expects Permian production to reach about 2.5 MMboed by 2030, roughly double 2024 levels, reflecting technology gains, improved capital efficiency and integration benefits from the Pioneer acquisition. The company said proprietary drilling and completion technologies are already delivering higher recoveries, while synergies from Pioneer are expected to total $4 billion annually, double earlier estimates.

In addition to production growth, ExxonMobil said its transformation efforts have reduced unit costs and lifted upstream margins, with unit earnings excluding special items projected to exceed $15 per barrel by 2030, roughly three times 2019 levels.

Beyond upstream, ExxonMobil reaffirmed its commitment to LNG expansion, low-carbon technologies and carbon capture and storage, while noting that all corporate greenhouse-gas intensity targets set for 2030 are now expected to be achieved by 2026.

The company expects to generate approximately $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent, supporting dividends, share repurchases and disciplined reinvestment across its global portfolio.