Brazil, Guyana and Argentina drive non-OPEC crude growth into 2026, EIA says

(WO) - Global crude oil production is forecast to rise by about 800,000 bpd in 2026, with Brazil, Guyana and Argentina accounting for roughly half of that growth, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The EIA said crude supply growth since 2023 has been led largely by producers outside the OPEC+ group. While coordinated OPEC+ production cuts offset non-OPEC gains in 2024, global output rebounded in 2025, rising an estimated 2.2 MMbpd. Non-OPEC producers contributed about 1.7 MMbpd of that increase, with Brazil, Guyana and Argentina responsible for roughly 28% of total global growth.

In Brazil, crude oil output surged in 2025 following the start-up of new FPSOs in deepwater developments. Production exceeded 4.0 MMbpd for the first time in October, supported by the October start-up of Equinor’s Bacalhau field and additional capacity additions earlier in the year. The EIA forecasts Brazilian crude production will average about 4.0 MMbpd in 2026, supported by two additional FPSOs scheduled to come online at Petrobras’ Buzios field.

Guyana continues to post one of the fastest oil production growth rates globally, with output rising nearly tenfold since 2020. Production averaged an estimated 750,000 bpd in 2025, driven by developments in the Stabroek Block operated by ExxonMobil, alongside partners Hess and CNOOC. The EIA noted that ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project reached full capacity in late 2025, pushing Guyana’s production above 900,000 bpd in November. The start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add 250,000 bpd, helping Guyana surpass 1.0 MMbpd by 2027.

In Argentina, crude production growth is being driven by the Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the few unconventional oil basins outside the U.S. producing at scale. Argentine output is forecast to rise from about 740,000 bpd in 2025 to roughly 810,000 bpd in 2026, with Vaca Muerta accounting for more than 60% of national production.

The EIA said combined growth from Brazil, Guyana and Argentina will remain a key factor shaping global supply balances as non-OPEC production continues to expand into 2026.

Pictured above: The Buzios 7 FPSO, operating offshore Brazil. SBM Offshore, Petrobras