OPEC+ confirms plan to pause production hikes in early 2026 amid surplus concerns
(Bloomberg) – OPEC+ will stick with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter, amid growing signs of a surplus in global oil markets.
Key members led by Saudi Arabia confirmed the three-month supply pause, first announced at the start of this month, following a set of video conferences on Sunday. They reiterated in a statement that the decision reflected expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies also approved a mechanism for its review of members’ individual production capacities, a sensitive process that will help set quotas in 2027. They picked Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton Corp. for most assessments.
While the pause on output hikes indicates some caution by the alliance after it rapidly revived oil production earlier this year, it still leaves world markets on track for a significant excess in early 2026, which is likely to put further pressure on prices.
“OPEC+ opted to hold fire and maintain its current strategy,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly.”
Oil futures have declined 15% this year to trade near $63 a barrel in London, as booming supply from the Americas in tandem with the OPEC+ hike exceeds demand growth. The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts a record glut in 2026, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see futures heading lower.
Freezing production for three months buys OPEC+ some time while it assesses heightened geopolitical risks to supplies from members, as well as renewed efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
President Donald Trump ratcheted up tensions with Venezuela on Saturday by warning that airlines should consider the airspace above and around the country to be closed, as his administration continues to crack down on drug trafficking.
Crude’s pullback comes against the backdrop of Trump’s repeated calls for lower fuel prices amid voter concerns about the cost of living. The president warmly greeted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House earlier this month, with his administration approving the kingdom’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets and artificial intelligence chips.
Eight key OPEC+ nations stunned oil traders in April when they began to accelerate the return of production halted since 2023. Officials have described the move as Riyadh’s bid to reclaim market share ceded to rivals like US shale drillers, and punish fellow OPEC+ members who had flouted their quotas.
While the Saudis have succeeded in clawing back some market share, the ensuing price slide has challenged the kingdom financially, widening its budget deficit and forcing the scale-back of some flagship economic projects. It’s also straining producers outside OPEC+ like U.S. shale drillers.
OPEC+ has revived about 70% of two layers of production halted in 2023 — at least on paper — leaving about 1.1 MMbpd of these still to return. The organization left in place another layer of cutbacks for the wider 22-nation group, amounting to roughly 2 MMbpd, until the end of 2026.
Still, monthly production increases by the sub-group have been smaller than the advertised volumes as some countries compensate for earlier overproduction, and others physically struggle to increase.
Such difficulties are at the heart of the group’s long-term review of members’ production capacity, first announced in May.
Some countries are seeking to have new capacity recognized and others struggle to pump as much as they’re allowed to. Clarifying their full capacity would help align quotas more closely with reality — and make any future cutbacks more credible.
