EMGC '19: DNV GL sees gas taking lead in Euro energy demand

NICOSIA—On the morning of Day 2 of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Conference (EMGC 2019), Elfride Covarrubias, Business Development Manager for Italy and the Mediterranean for DNVL GL, spoke to delegates about DNV GL's analysis of Europe's ongoing energy transition.

The two main drivers in the European energy transition include climate change and the desire for clean, secure and affordable energy sources, Ms. Covarrubias said. By 2050, DNV GL expects an equal split in the use of fossil fuels and renewable (non-fossil) fuels. At present, the split is approximately 80% fossil fuel use and 20% non-fossil fuel use.

European energy demand is anticipated to peak in 2035. "The main energy efficiencies we will see are in transport," Ms. Covarrubias said. "We are talking about drastic changes in energy in this sector. We will see much less fossil fuels, with a reduction of about 8% in transport by 2050, with more electric cars."

Natural gas is the main fuel that will enable the overall energy transition. Between 2016 and 2050, DNV GL expects natural gas use to expand by 29% to make up 61% of Europe's fossil fuel energy mix; whereas oil demand will fall from 47% to 24%, and coal use is expected to drop from 21% to 15%.

From 2026, natural gas is anticipated to take the lead in energy demand, after a predicted peak in oil demand in 2024, Ms. Covarrubias noted.

Gulf Energy Information's EMGC 2019 is taking place in Nicosia, Cyprus from 6–7  March.