What's new in exploration

No one likes New Year’s resolutions, mostly because we do not intend to be judged on our actions, but we want people to see our “good” intentions—human nature. So I do not make any resolutions, but I do “opinionate” about the New Year.

Of course, most people never intended to actually carry out any of their resolutions. So, is there an analog to the U.S. presidential election results before the actual inauguration, or to the speedy Brexit crawfishing?  Lots of folks, and lots of money, are on both sides of any big issue. Whoever pushes the hardest wins, NOT whoever is most righteous, [i.e., Bill’s axiom, a version of Newton’s Law, and W=F*D]!

We in the industry should be part of the game—helmet and pads, perhaps with spurs on. Thus, I predict the following for 2017:

• A humongous fight with the vocal minority, worldwide, that Big Oil is working to make climate warmer [or colder] to the total destruction of us all. [That one was easy.]
• Regulations will not decrease in impact, but increase, due to the effort to “better” define the intent of the original law behind the regulation. Application to reduce the size of the regulatory lens, and focus on the actual intended issues, equals confusion. Since no one knows the real issues, and intent was always clandestine, we may/will continue to be stuck in an endless do-loop.
• The Paris Climate Agreement, the worst New Year’s resolution that the World could create, has nothing to do with action to improve the planet. It will not be judged on results, but on what was intended to be done. Politicians only need to feel good, in my opinion. Global warming will have nothing to do with the price of heating oil for your next winter, no matter where you live on this planet.
• Oil price will not recover to $60-70/bbl in 2017, as so many have predicted or hoped for. Sorry International Energy Agency (IEA), Merrill Lynch and 44% of oil execs (World Oil, September 2016, citing a Deloitte survey). I will be happy with stable, $54/bbl oil and so will the World Bank, the “mortgage company” for production loans.
• Production debt and oil price will continue to defund exploration.
• The 500,000-plus jobs lost in the oil patch since October 2014 [just in the U.S.] are gone. So are most of the young recruits that we were counting on to backfill significant gaps in expertise.
• Coffee will not get cheaper, and world currencies will work against world oil prices. Forget gold. Cigarettes, bullets and emotion are more likely to control what happens to exploration in 2017.
• Some of the best places to find new “undiscovered” oil reserves will continue to have the worst possible climatic conditions for humans; possess impossible geo-political issues; have the most dangerous populations; or just be plain, awful.
• Exploration will continue in places like the U.S. Permian, Williston and Powder River basins, central Canada [thank you juniors], offshore anywhere in the GOM, some limited places in the North Sea, and offshore North Africa. Alabama too? We take a pause in Brazil, and West Africa, and maybe Australia.

Since I have stepped in it above, in points 1 and 3 over global warming, let me reveal a recent public study. “Gulf of Mexico 3D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project,” RPSEA/DOE Project 08121-2801-02, evaluated several ocean circulation numerical models, for their possible use in an operational forecast system for the GOM, including currents associated with the Gulf Loop Current and the large clockwise eddies it sheds on the time scale of several months to a few years.

A single model (see diagram on this page), a.k.a., Gulf of Mexico—Long Range Ensemble Forecasting System (GOMLREFS), was created [from combining several exiting climate change models], based on hind-casting for a real-time demonstration, evaluation, and further development of the forecast system. The computer model has now been commercialized and has been running in real time, with minimal interruption, since January 2013, producing 60-day forecasts, once per week.

In addition, the model has been transitioned into the U.S. Naval operational system for its use. The model achieved a TRL of 7, meaning it is used as the best we have, but it is only reliable for 60 days, not 60 years. The original input models are the same computer equations [public use] that the global/Gore people use. 

About the Authors

William (Bill) Head

Contributing Editor

William (Bill) Head is a technologist with over 40 years of experience in U.S. and international exploration.