OUTLOOK 2004: International
Global Offshore Drilling

US Gulf and Far East pace activity

World Oil's estimated worldwide offshore drilling – based primarily on survey results – indicates a moderate 7.4% increase to 3,182 wells. All major areas except Western Europe show increases, paced by more drilling in Norway, Trinidad & Tobago, Angola, Egypt, Qatar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Australia. The US Gulf, will increase, and Mexico will boost activity to help North America offset drops in Canada and Alaska. 

US Gulf of Mexico. The US Gulf should rebound with its 55-well increase to 865 wells. Most drilling is done by jackup and platform-based rigs, for shallow-water shelf developments, where an infrastructure provides ready markets. However, this area is gas-prone, and with rapid depletion rates. Major operators continue to develop deep waters, with minimal total wells. 

In January, ODS-Petrodata's Offshore Rig Locator (ORL) showed only 120 offshore rigs active, including 86 of 115 jackups, 21 of 32 semis, 8 of 9 drillships and 5 of 7 submersibles. The Gulf also has 69 platform rigs, of which only 25 were working. 

For deep gas, on Shelf areas in less than 200-m water, MMS finalized its royalty relief program for deep (below 15,000-ft) gas drilling, which can put several larger jackups to work. And Sale 185 for the Central Gulf sparked some interest, with 793 bids from 74 companies. 

Western Europe. Another decrease this year, of 1.3%, to 513 wells is forecast. The UK, focusing on improving existing fields with satellite developments and EOR, will hold steady at 245 wells – about 100 wells below earlier 2002 levels. Norway shows a 3.0% increase to 172 wells, with minimal exploration. And the Netherlands and Denmark will decrease 14.3% to 30, and hold steady at 32, respectively. ORL said the North Sea and NW Europe had 54 of 66 rigs active, including 31 jackups and 23 semis – this market has steadily declined. Italy will decrease to 19 wells, from 25 last year. 

Far East. In this major area, including the Indian Subcontinent, SE Asia and the Far East,ORL reported 89 rigs working, out of 119 total, including 59 jackups, 11 semis, 5 drillships and 14 tenders/ barges. Malaysia expects continued drilling with 196 wells, to supply gas markets. No. 2 Thailand will increase 6.1% to 175 wells, with new concessions. Indonesia will add 10 wells for a 165 total, to support LNG exports. India is promoting new deep- and shallow-water blocks, and will maintain a 105-well level. And Vietnam and China have active developments to support 70 and 60 new wells, respectively. To the Southeast, Australia will lead the South Pacific area to a 31.2% well increase to 101. 

Africa, the 4th largest driller, expects a 13.4% increase, with a 29.4% boost from Egypt, to 66 wells, and a 25.9% increase in Angola to 73, for active exploration programs. Nigeria, with developments in deepwater, will hold steady at 71. ORL said 35 rigs were working offshore West Africa, out of 51, including 15 jackups, 13 semis, 4 drillships and 3 tenders. The Gulf of Suez and Red Sea had all of its12 available jackups working; South and East Africa only had one semi drilling. 

The Middle East will see a heightened level of drilling, 180 total wells, in the Persian Gulf this year, paced by Qatar with a 52.5% increase to 93 wells to support its LNG exports. This is offset by a one-well dropoff in Saudi Arabia to 28 wells as its offshore fields are well developed. Iran's Gulf drilling will hold steady at 30 wells. And Abu Dhabi will drop 46.2%, to 14 wells. Forty four jackups were working in the Persian Gulf in January, out of 56 total. 

South America foresees an 8.5% increase to 256 wells this year, paced by Brazil, holding steady at 180 wells. Of Brazil's 40-rig total fleet, 4 jackups were drilling, 20 semis were active on deepwater exploration and development, as were 8 drillships working in deep- to ultra-deep water in Campos basin.