WORLD TRENDS

Industry pace should quicken

Global upstream activity to overcome economic slowdown

Global economic doldrums in the post-Sept. 11, 2001, period dampened leading upstream indicators. Worldwide oil production and reserves squeezed out small increases. Drilling was suppressed during first-half 2002.

Nevertheless, activity should pick up during the remainder of the year, as oil companies loosen their underspent budgets. Although softness will continue in the Western Hemisphere, the remainder of the globe will do better, highlighted by strong drilling activity in Africa and the Former Soviet Union.

In North America, Canada will still record one of its four best years, despite the drop-off from last year’s record pace. Mexico continues to ride high on the strength of gas development activity. Wells drilled will equal last year’s 450.

South America is showing the effects of economic deterioration in some countries and political upheaval in others. Drilling levels will be down everywhere, exception in the "Others" category (Suriname and Barbados). Argentina and Venezuela will be particularly hard-hit.

Things could be worse in Western Europe than the 8.4% decrease expected. The stagnant North Sea will keep levels soft in the UK and Norway. Conversely, a moderate recovery will occur in Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.

Last year’s activity upsurge in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe continues. Strong spending on drilling and production is taking place in Russia, where wells should rise 6.6%.

Africa is likely to be this year’s star performer. Activity levels remain high along West Africa, where discoveries continue to be made. Significant increases are likely in Algeria and Egypt.

Activity should plateau in the Middle East this year, but the level will still be relatively high. Hot spots in the region will be Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Oman will remain top driller.

In the Far East, natural gas remains the driving force in a robust performance expected in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Thailand. Gas will also boost Pakistani drilling levels.

Australia continues to improve, and that will be enough to boost South Pacific drilling 9% higher, despite a decline in New Zealand and stagnation in Papua New Guinea.

	Table:Estimated proven world reserves, 2001 versus 2000
	Table: Forecast of 2002 world drilling – comparisons with 2001 and 2000
	Table: World crude/Condensate production and wells actually producing – 2001 versus 2000