Africa: Nigeria

AFRICA

Nigeria

Nigeria is Africa’s leading oil producer, dependent on oil exports for 80% of all government revenue and over 90% of all export revenue. Officials have begun a gradual, phased-in privatization of many businesses. Domestic growth was roughly 3% in 2000, and that rate may accelerate. Political unrest and sabotage of petroleum infrastructure remain a problem.

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More than two years after the country returned to civilian rule, Nigeria continues to amend its hydrocarbon laws. Reforms to the 1990 Petroleum Act concern dozens of issues, including federal vs. state ownership of minerals and the federal / state allocation of oil revenues. In January 2001, President Olusegun Obasanjo replaced his entire cabinet.

Last September, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea formally settled their long-running maritime border dispute. Equatorial Guinea held onto the Zafiro oil complex, while Nigeria gained acreage farther south. Sao Tome and Principe agreed with Nigeria to jointly develop and manage a disputed area between their offshore borders. Oil was discovered there recently but not appraised.

Exploration. About half of the deepwater wells drilled have struck pay, with combined reserves estimated at 5.6 billion bbl. Nigeria’s first tender offer closed in December, selling eight of 22 leases offered to consortia that involve 14 oil companies.

Allegations of corruption continue, although it was an improvement from past lease sales under military rule. Winners included Exxon (OPL214); Amni (OPL229); Obekpa (OPL242); Eni (OPL244); Petrobrás (OPL324); Oranta (OPL320); Chevron (OPL250); and Phillips (OPL244). The tender raised $900 million for the government.

Drilling / development. Several giant deepwater discoveries will significantly increase production as they come onstream. Chief among them is ExxonMobil’s Erha field (1.2 billion bbl in estimated reserves); output could reach 250,000 bopd by 2003 – 2004.

Texaco’s Agbami field (estimated reserves exceed 1 billion boe) is scheduled to go online in 2004, with a production capacity of 200,000 bpd of 45°API sweet crude. Shell’s Bonga field is expected online in late 2003, as is the firm’s EA/EJA field. Bonga should produce about 225,000 bopd and 170 MMcfgd. Bonga’s development will require 29 subsea trees (some for water injection) connected to an FPSO, with a gas export line extending to the EA riser platform.

EA/EJA, a "small," 350-MMbbl shallow-water discovery, will produce 120,000 bopd from 54 producer wells. It should see first oil by year-end 2002. TotalFinaElf’s Amenam / Kpono field has 500 MMbbl of estimated reserves and is expected to begin producing 100ý000 bopd in summer 2003. Production will begin this year from Eni/Agip’s Abo field, while TotalFinaElf’s Amenam / Kpono field should yield 100,000 bopd by mid-2003. Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. (NNPC) and Eni/Agip agreed to jointly develop two new oil fields, Okpoho and Okono, on lease OPL 91.

Several large gas projects are being developed to exploit the country’s 124 Tcf of gas reserves. Roughly 75% of Nigeria’s gas currently produced is flared. All operators have agreed to a government plan to phase out flaring by 2004 to 2008. At Nigeria LNG on Bonnie Island, a third LNG train is expected to be online in fall 2001, raising production to nearly 400 Bcf/year.

The second phase of the Escarvos gas project (NNPC / Chevron, 60%/40%) went onstream in late 2000. It brings total Escarvos production capacity to 300 MMcfgd. A third Escarvos expansion is planned, to process an additional 400 MMcfgd from Chevron’s northern offshore fields. It will feed a $1.2-billion, 35,000-bpd GTL plant, due onstream by 2005.

Production. Nigeria is an OPEC member and subject to production quotas. Its current quota is just shy of 2 MMbopd. Nigerian oil output averaged 1.998 million bpd last year, down 5% from 1999’s level and in line with the country’s quota at that time. Shell produces about half of the country’s crude.