Editorial Comment
Here we go again?Seems like we no sooner finished updating the forecast of worldwide drilling for this year (see World Oil August issue) than things took a turn for the worse. The update concluded that drilling would be down this year from earlier expectations, but not drastically. It was also noted that activity could even be better than expected the second half of 1998 if OPEC and the various non-OPEC countries that had agreed to production cuts actually adhered to them. But as we also said in August, the acid test would come with the release of July OPEC production figures, which would tell whether or not the production cuts had indeed been made. Well, as you're surely aware by now, there's good news and bad news — mostly bad. The good news is that the International Energy Agency said that OPEC last month cut production by 1.4 million bbl per day. The bad news (at least according to the NYMEX traders) is that the cartel did not meet its goal of lopping 2.6 million bpd off of its February levels. Compounding the problem was Mexico, Norway and Russia, which also failed to make promised production cuts. We will leave the explanation of the whys and hows a production cut, albeit smaller than anticipated, would cause an oil price decrease to the crude traders and speculators. Surely, we wouldn't understand it anyway. Instead, we're going to be too busy hoping for a blue-frigid winter and an Asian economic revival.
Some scary things are happening that bring back painful memories of the mid-1980s — things like consolidations and personnel reductions. Several companies seem to have taken the aforementioned price drop as a cue to begin retrenchment actions, and are announcing layoffs and early retirements. But the big story is the BP/Amoco deal, which will put some 6,000 people out of work, according to press releases. We wanted to get an insider's view of the pending acquisition, so we called an old acquaintance, Billy Bob Brown, out in West Texas. BBB has been with Amoco since its production subsidiary was called Pan American Petroleum, and as a result, has built up a sizable nest-egg of Amoco stock. And since he's on the downhill side of the "magic 55," he doesn't feel he has much to lose by saying exactly what he feels. When asked what effect he thought the merger would have on his operation, he replied, "Probably not much out here. But I do feel sorry for the receptionist. Back when we changed our name to Amoco, that poor gal had to answer the 'phone, 'Good morning Amoco Production Company, formerly Pan American Petroleum Corporation, may I help you, please.' Now she'll have to do all that again, sort of in reverse, and explain what that PLC means at the end of the new name." From a personal standpoint, BBB says, "My first idea was to change my name so's I'd fit in better with the new management. I'd change the spelling of my last name to match Sir John's. I might even add my mom's maiden name and hyphenate the two. Don't you think Billy Bob Smith-Browne has a nice ring to it?" "Then again," continued BBB, "after reading up on Alphabet Browne, I'm not too sure I'd want any of these ole boys out here thinking we're kin. Just think about it, he's way too light to handle a '48' and he's single and lives with his momma. And on top of that, he likes opera and collects pre-Colombian artifacts!" But upon further reflection, BBB conceded, "I'll give him this though, he's gotta be one sharp fellow. How else could somebody like that survive a hitch on the Slope?" What seems to bother BBB the most is the fact that BP is the acquiring company. "Did you know that now, two out of the world's three giant oil companies are all foreign-owned? Why, that's un-American!"
While on the subject of things un-American, we received the following e-mail from an old friend and former World Oil editorial colleague. And like the BP/Amoco agreement, it also deals with the aspect of domination. Our friend doesn't know who had the original idea, but if it's yours, claim it and we'll give proper attribution: The European Union Commissioners announced that agreement has been reached to adopt English as the preferred language for European communications rather than German, which was the other possible candidate. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's Government of the UK conceded to the German High Chancellor that English spelling has some room for improvement. Accordingly, the UK has accepted Germany's 5-year phased plan for what will be known as EuroEnglish (Euro for short). In the first year, "s" will be used instead of soft "c." Sertainly, sivil servants will reseive this news with joy. Also, the hard "c" will be replaced with "k." Not only will this klear up konfusion, but typewriters kan have one less letter. There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced by "f." This will make words like "fotograf" 10 % shorter. In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of silent "e"s in the languag is disgrasful, and they woud go. By the fourth year, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" by "z" and "w" by "v." During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou," and similar changes vud of kors be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters. After ze fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubls or difikultis and evri vun vil find it ezi tu understand ech ozer. Ze drem of a unitid Urup vil finali kum tru!
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