OUTLOOK 2004: United States
US Reserves
Gas and oil reserves creep up again
US proved crude oil reserves increased in 2002 a modest 1% – the fourth consecutive yearly increase. Reserves exceeded production by 12%. Proved dry natural gas reserves fared better, rising nearly 2% over the 2001 – 2002 period. As always, comparative data for 2003 will be ready next year, since it takes nearly a year for the US government to gather and analyze reserve data.
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Estimated US crude oil proved reserves, 2002 vs. 2001, million bbl |
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Estimated US dry gas reserves, 2002 vs. 2001, Bcf at 14.73 psia and 60 ° F |
Crude oil. In the category new field discoveries , 97% were in the Gulf of Mexico Federal Offshore. However, this was 15% less than the prior 10-year average. Total discoveries of all types, including field extensions and new reservoirs in old fields, were 7% less than the prior 10-year average and 63% less than 2001's. This is because 2001 was a banner year in activity that included the discovery of BP's Thunder Horse field. Of note, the Alaskan North Slope saw no significant discoveries. The recent 20% downward revision by Shell should have no effect on these US reserve figures.
The pen was mightier than the drillbit in 2002, with the net of revisions (+/-) and adjustments (1.36 billion bbl) adding more to reserves than did discoveries (54% vs. 46%). Also, about 800 million bbl changed hands via sales and acquisitions. In its usual enigmatic manner, 24 million more barrels were bought than were sold.
Natural Gas. The 1.9% year-to-year improvement in total proved gas reserves was the eighth increase in the past nine years (1994 – 2002). In the combined categories that comprise total discoveries (new fields, field extensions, new reservoirs in old fields), there was a 22% decrease from 2001, reflecting the strong drilling activity in 2001 and the effect of wellhead prices – $4.02/Mcf in 2001 vs. $2.95 in 2002. However, this was still 36% better than the prior 10-year average, which is due to continuing generally high gas prices.
New field discoveries mirrored those of oil, falling 63% since 2001, some 24% less than the prior 10-year average. Natural gas liquids are not shown in the accompanying charts, but they comprise a significant part of US liquids production (32%) and reserves (26%). In 2002, despite the rise in dry gas reserves, NGL reserves were flat. That was because coalbed methane, which generally has no NGLs, accounted for a large portion of new gas reserves.
Additions to reserves were 18% more than production. Unfortunately, this was partly because gas production was off 2% in 2002. The Gulf of Mexico fell the most, but was partially offset by large production increases in the Rocky Mountains and Texas, signifying a shift toward unconventional gas fields, i.e., tight sands, shales and coalbeds. Coalbed methane proved reserves grew 5% to 18.5 Tcf and accounted for 10% of US dry gas reserves and 8% of production in 2002.
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