Strengthening dollar, weakening stocks add to shale oil worries
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) -- After its best January since 2006, the oil market is set to wrap up the week on a slump as a stronger dollar and weaker stocks added to concerns over booming shale production.
Futures slipped as much as 2% in New York, with oil inversely tracking the U.S. dollar. A stronger greenback reduces the appeal of raw materials as an investment. Meanwhile, American equities headed for the worst week in two years. At the same time, worries over higher shale production added to the downward price momentum.
“The strong jobs report is certainly upping expectations for Fed rate hikes and that’s causing a little strength in the dollar, but is certainly causing some softness in the equity market,” Rob Haworth, who helps oversee $150 billion in assets at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle, said by telephone. “You are seeing a bit of a risk-off day that’s actually bleeding into the oil market.”
Crude in New York lingers near $65/bbl, threatening to bring a flood of U.S. shale to the market. A bigger production surge is likelier than most expect, Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Drilling in the U.S. intensified for a second week, with six oil rigs added, according to Baker Hughes data on Friday.
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery dropped 57 cents to $65.23/bbl at 1:15 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are poised for a 1.4% decline this week.
Brent for April settlement fell $1.07 to $68.58/bbl. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.68 to April WTI.
The dollar rose after U.S. payrolls and average hourly earnings beat estimates and prior results were revised higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added as much as 1%.
U.S. output surged above 10 MMbopd for the first time in more than four decades in November, the Energy Information Administration reported earlier this week. Weekly production is also at a record-high level.
Oil has been tracking the dollar all week “and all of a sudden, oil prices are under pressure,” said Gene McGillian, a market research manager at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut, in a telephone interview. Meanwhile, “in the back of traders’ minds is the data that came out that showed U.S. crude production jumped above 10 MMbpd back in November.”
In other market news. Gasoline futures fell as much as 2.8% to $1.8428/gal, the lowest since mid-January. Hedge funds cut their bullish ICE Brent crude oil bets by the most since November, according to weekly ICE Futures Europe data on futures and options. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the two biggest U.S. oil explorers, each missed Wall Street’s profit and production estimates, spurring a stock selloff for both as wary investors hit the lifeboats. Weatherford International Plc dropped more than 16% after reporting worse-than-expected results for the fourth quarter and a lower forecast for the first three months of this year.
