The last barrel ///

Have many readers noticed that going back 12 months, the “experts” in our industry, as well as other lines of endeavor, have been consistently wrong in their predictions and analysis? A growing pile of evidence supports my hypothesis, enough so that every time someone makes a prediction, I am inclined to run in the opposite direction, as far from it as possible. Several examples range from oil prices to political contests and college football. Oil price goofs. Nowhere have experts been more wrong, more frequently, than when they predicted oil prices 10 to 12 months ago. In October 2014, very few people believed that prices would fall so fast, to where they are now, and drag E&P activity down with them. Perhaps this is because they failed to recognize early on, that the root of the problem is deliberate Saudi over-production, just as it was in the 1986 oil price collapse.

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