August
1999 Vol. 220 No. 8 Editorial
|
Thomas R. Wright, Jr.,
Editorial Director
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In perspective
As the U.S. active rig count drifted down to record lows last April, we knew it was going
to be a terrible year for the industry, but we didnt realize just how terrible until
we began preparation of the special reports that follow in this issue.
How bad is it? Well, its so bad that we had to dig back through old issues of World
Oils predecessor, The Oil Weekly, to find a year when drilling was lower
in the U.S. Weve disregarded outside U.S. drilling since the numbers werent
readily available that far back. What we found was that drilling hasnt been as low as
currently predicted for 1999 since 1933 when only 12,170 wells were drilled in the U.S.
However, when perusing the 1933 issues of The Oil Weekly, what struck us was how
different things are now from then. For example:
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1933 |
1999 |
|
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U.S. economy |
In midst of Great Depression |
Current peace-time expansion is largest
ever |
|
|
January oil price, WTI |
$0.50 |
$10.00 |
|
|
July oil, price, WTI |
$0.30
|
$20.00
|
|
|
Price influences |
East Texas field
recently discovered; over-production rampant; proration established |
Oil traded on commodity
markets; OPEC reasserts production quotas |
|
|
U.S. oil production |
2.6 million bpd |
5.9 million bpd |
|
|
Texas oil production |
1.1 million bpd |
1.5 million bpd |
|
|
Unreported (illegal) E. Texas field
production |
100,000 bpd |
None (we hope) |
|
|
Business environment |
Standard Oil Trust
dissolved 22 years earlier |
Standard
companies re-merging |
|
|
U.S. petroleum demand |
2.5 million bpd |
18.4 million bpd |
|
|
U.S. oil supply |
|
|
|
|
Domestic |
2.4 million bpd |
5.8 million bpd |
|
|
From
imports |
69,000 bpd |
8.4 million bpd |
|
|
World oil production |
3.9 million bpd (in
1930) |
73 million bpd |
|
|
Favored international communication method |
Telegram |
E-mail |
|
|
|
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The first meeting of the World Petroleum Congress was held in London in 1933 after being
conceived and organized by the Petroleum Technologists, a British body of oil scientists
incorporated in 1914. Prior to this meeting, the nearest approach to such a gathering took
place in Germany in 1912 under the name Internationale Petroleum Kommission. However, it was
later derailed by World War I.
During the 1933 confab, a Mr. Kessler, managing director of Royal Dutch Shell, presented
his address in the lecture theater of the Royal Institution (which corresponds to the
American National Academy of Science). For the speech, "both speaker and audience
(were) in formal dress, with decorations, surrounded by the paintings and handiwork and
memories of some of the worlds most famous scientists." This sounds substantially
different from the Offshore Europe International Conference that will be held next month in
Aberdeen.
There is also a substantial difference in humor between then and now. For example, an
automobile story included in that 1933 issue of The Oil Weekly went something like
this:
"A recent invention by Wendall Fathers, famed for motor car attachments, is the
Oral Speedometer, which operates with a phonographic attachment, providing the following
warnings:
"At 25 mph The city speed limit has been passed. Is there a motorcycle
policeman behind you?
"At 35 mph Too fast for city driving. Hope you are in the country.
"At 45 mph Your car is still under control, but watch the car behind the car
ahead of you.
"At 50 mph Your responsibility is increasing; keep your eyes on the road.
"At 60 mph Are your insurance premiums paid to date?
"At 70 mph You drive; this attachment will do the praying.
"At 80 mph Probably someone will have this car repaired. If so, we thank you
for the sale of another speedometer to replace this one, which in a few moments, is going
to hell with you."
Obviously, whoever composed that story would be astonished at the speeds we now travel on
the Interstates and Autobahns.
Todays humor, (sent via e-mail, incidentally) might be represented by the following:
Bill Gates reportedly compared the computer industry with the auto industry and said: "If
GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving
$25-cars that got 1,000 miles per gallon."
In response to Gates comments, General Motors reportedly issued a press release
stating:
"If GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with
the following characteristics:
"For no reason whatsoever your car would crash twice a day.
"Occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason, and you would just
accept this, restart and drive on.
"Occasionally, executing a maneuver such as a left turn would cause your car to
shut down and refuse to restart, in which case you would have to reinstall the engine.
"Only one person at a time could use the car, unless you bought Car95 or
Carnet, but then you would have to buy more seats.
"The oil, water temperature and alternator warning lights would be replaced by a
single general car default warning light.
"The airbag system would say, Are your sure? before going off.
"Occasionally, for no apparent reason, your car would lock you out and refuse to
let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key and grabbed
hold of the radio antenna.
"Youd press the start button to shut off the engine."
Copyright © 1999 World
Oil Copyright ©
1999 Gulf Publishing Company |