Petrobras will drive 76% of Brazil’s crude production to 2021

LONDON -- Petróleo Brasileiro’s (Petrobras) liquids production is expected to grow to 2.7 MMbpd by 2021. Although in decline, the prolific Roncador field will still drive company’s oil production with over 8.3% share of all production in 2021. Buzios III and Buzios I will follow with 5.9% and 5.5% respectively, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

By 2021, 309 fields globally will be contributing liquids production to Petrobras, with the expected equity weighted production of over 2.7 MMbpd and 24 new oil projects will be responsible for about 1.1 MMbpd in 2021. Projects in Brazil will be responsible for 97.7% or 2.6 MMbpd of production, followed by projects in the U.S. with 1.2% (32,500 bpd) of production in 2021.

Conventional oil and heavy oil fields will be responsible for 2.6 MMbpd of production in 2021, while condensate from conventional gas developments will contribute 16,800 bpd to Petrobras’s liquids production by 2021. Ultra-deepwater fields contribute about 69%, while deepwater fields contribute around 24% of the total liquids production. Shallow water and onshore fields contribute about 3.6% and 3%, respectively.

Petrobras is expected to spend $45.6bn between 2018 and 2021 on conventional and heavy oil projects, with capex peaking in 2018 at $13.1bn. Venezuela is expected to have the highest remaining capex/boe with $58/boe, whereas projects in which Petrobras has participation have low remaining recoverable reserves, as those fields are at the final part of their productive life. The company’s projects in the U.S. are expected to have the lowest average remaining capex/boe at $3.2/boe. The projects in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Nigeria are forecast to have the remaining capex of $6.6, $6.1, $5.6 and $5.3/boe respectively.

Among the fields in which Petrobras has equity stake, the ultra-deepwater Roncador field in Brazil is the major oil field with expected contribution of about 220,200 bopd in 2021. The project has a remaining break-even oil price of $25 per barrel.

Another important field is the ultra-deepwater pre-salt Libra Noroeste project, which will contribute approximately 39,100 bopd to Petrobras by 2021. The company’s share of remaining recoverable oil reserves from the field total 643 MMbo. Libra Noroeste has a remaining break-even oil price of $35/bbl.

Buzios III, also in Brazil, is one of the major ultra-deepwater oil producing fields, which is expected to contribute around 156,500 bopd in 2021 with the remaining break-even of $23/bbl. Another ultra-deepwater oil producing Buzios I field in Brazil is expected to contribute about 146,500 bopd by 2021 with the remaining break-even oil price of $32/bbl.