Non-OPEC production growth reduced by over 2 MMbopd towards 2020: Rystad Energy

5/26/2015

OSLO -- Non-OPEC liquids growth potential of 5.5 MMbopd over the next five years has been reduced by over 2 MMbopd to 3.3 MMbopd, according to Rystad Energy’s most recent forecasts.

Latest oil field research shows investments in oil and gas production are estimated to drop 20% in 2015 compared to 2014. Outside OPEC, $200 billion in yearly capex is considered to be axed over a two-year period. Ultimately, for every billion dollars being cut in development capex on marginal projects, the production shortfall would amount to 10 Mbopd.

Only U.S. production has been visibly impacted with the trend turning from 20% annual growth during the first quarter of the year to a flat trend in the second quarter. The shortfall of global offshore production may be steeper if oil prices stay low throughout the year.

“In the longer run, anything below $90/bbl is not sustainable due to this steep, but delayed supply response and increasing global base declines, while the cost of new production will remain high,” says Rystad Energy’s oil trade analyst Nadia A. Martin, formerly with Phibro and Morgan Stanley.

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