First oil

Back in July of this year, World Oil quietly turned 105 years old. At the time, we didn’t make a big fuss about it, because, frankly, we were quite busy at the time, and we still have a collectively full plate now.

But it’s worth noting, as is the fact that we’ve also been forecasting for 95 of those 105 years. Accordingly, we have assembled our annual mid-year forecast update, covering the U.S., Canada and International locations in detail. As regards the U.S., we are pleased to see that our initial winter forecast in February has held up well. Our revised estimate for 2020’s U.S. drilling is just 1.1% different than the February estimate. Likewise, our updated prediction for 2021 drilling is only 3.5% different than what we first expected in February.

Outside the U.S., our estimate for 2020 International drilling is just 3.0% different than the original February total. And as regards the 2021 prediction, our current 38,871-well total outside the U.S. is only 4.0% different than the original February forecast. For further details and specific regional outlooks, please turn to pages 31, 37 and 39.

Sad news to report. We regret to inform you that our retired Chairman and President at Gulf Energy International (formerly Gulf Publishing Company), Robert W. (Bob) Scott, passed away on Sept. 22 at age 93. Bob had suffered an unfortunate, terminal injury on Sept. 16, and the doctors were unable to improve upon it. We will have much more on Bob’s life, career and tenure at Gulf in the October issue.

The Biden mess continues. Over the last eight-plus months, it seems as though everything that “Joltin’” Joe Biden touches turns to crap. The botched Afghanistan pull-out is the worst example, but then we also have the incredible mess along the southern U.S. border, Biden getting out in front of his skis on the Covid booster shot initiative (only to have his hand slapped by the FDA); rapidly worsening inflation that is eating away at take-home incomes of voters across the land; an incredibly bloated spending bill that the more rationally thinking members of his party can’t stomach; and now he has even managed to screw up French-American relations. Nice going, Joe.

Now, some of you in that very small minority of this industry complain that this is another example that we only pick on Democrats. Not so, my precious malcontents! If you were to look back through the last 40 years of World Oil issues, you would find plenty of examples of us castigating Republicans. For example, in the 1986-1988 period, former President Ronald Reagan was so intent to destroy the hard-currency earnings of the then-Soviet Union through low oil prices, that he damn near destroyed half of the U.S. domestic oil and gas industry in the process. You will find that we went after him with hammer and tongs repeatedly and thoroughly, because what he was doing was purely ignorant.

And let us not forget that Reagan’s successor, George H. W. Bush, was so worried that he would be perceived as being pro-oil and gas, and thus lose voters, that he studiously avoided doing anything to help the domestic oil and gas industry. Never mind the fact that as someone who had once run a significant upstream company, he was in a perfect position to help an industry that was still suffering the doldrums from problems created by his predecessor. Ironically, that hands-off routine drove some oil and gas professionals into the arms of Democrat Bill Clinton, who talked a good game and won the 1992 election, but due mostly to Bush’s slip of the tongue on “no new taxes.” Clinton proceeded to do very little to help the industry in eight years.

Another Republican, George W. Bush, also had worked in the industry, but did precious little to help it. You will find that we got after him numerous times for inaction. He probably would protest that he was preoccupied with fall-out from the 9/11 attacks and the military incursion into Iraq.

About the Authors

Kurt Abraham

World Oil

Kurt Abraham kurt.abraham@worldoil.com