What's new in exploration ///

Why do we even bother to believe our E&P methods work? After all, most exploration wells are dry holes. Depending on who is bragging, about one in 10, or four in 10 exploration wells become commercial. Of those [one or four], only half have any kind of production life. A RPSEA study (07121-1701) told us that no producer has ever had a life-of-field that matched its exploration estimates. Nor, for that matter, were its first production-to-final production estimates matched. Given that every technology we use has problems—some severe—and their composite use is, statistically, a resulting technical failure, why are we in the oil business? Assuming the best data as a comparison, would a rational person buy 10 trucks, and drive them to the job for a gold delivery, knowing that he or she will crash six out of every 10 times after leaving home? Then repeat that experience over and over? Worse yet, repeat the fun, when not too many of those crashes were caused by the same set of circumstances? Well, whoever said an explorationist was rational.

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