What's new in exploration

Hawaii has moved to the left since yesterday. Actually, Hawaii has moved a considerable, measurable distance to the left [on a map, to the northwestward] since you went to college. It is a disaster to stop learning topically, what you know or what you think you know, in your career journey. Worse yet, you could jump from techie to management and be frozen at what you thought you knew, when you became one of the chosen to be frozen. We have moved from the theory of continental drift to plate tectonics. We will move from global warming to something else, too. Rotary dialing and analog telephones are things of the past. So are silos of knowledge relegated to professional fraternities.

Where we learned our geo history can help us stay in the lanes of factual knowledge. This year’s annual AAPG meeting in Denver [ACE] presented some history on William “Strata” Smith. It was Smith, who organized the paleontologists’ recognition, internationally, of the age and classification of rock formations. During his tenure in the 1800s, words such as Cretaceous and Carboniferous became common. At one London Society meeting, all agreed that when they found the last occurrence of a certain dinosaur, that would be the end of the Cretaceous time period. 

Today, the public is being told that the Cretaceous ended rather instantaneously, since no dinosaurs are found after that “day.” Even though age dating shows that event could have been as many as 10 million years long, we still see peer-reviewed articles about the Yucatan, volcanic ash, and yes, global warming killing those poor giants. No worries, Hollywood has restored our knowledge base for the next generation through the Jurassic Park and Jurassic World movies.

Lack of cross-knowledge transfer. A profound, but simple illustration: SPE Blog, 4-19-2015. “One of our production engineers always jokes, ‘you reservoir engineers … you spend all that money and time on cutting and studying a core, and in the end, you know everything about the only piece of rock that’s not in the reservoir anymore.’” Michael Braun, petroleum engineer, ConocoPhillips Alaska Inc., Anchorage, Alaska. From an explorationist’s point of view, an engineer is an engineer. Apparently, petroleum engineers don’t think so.

What’s new. The SEG Advanced Modeling (SEAM) pore-pressure project, with participation from operators and service companies, will be showcased this year at the RPSEA Annual Ultra Deepwater Conference, Sept. 9-10 in Houston. The Tech Transfer Event is co-sponsored by SPE Gulf Coast section. This is some evidence that geo’s and engineers are aware of each other.

I had to spend time getting the SEAM project started with a reluctant SEG, now primarily funded by NETL-DOE. What I find fascinating about assembling a group of subject matter experts, on deriving pore pressure from seismic, is not in finding equations to better calculate pore pressure from 2D or 3D seismic, but the surprise is the very intense discussion among the sub-group members about creating a geologic model to test the perfect SEAM Phase 1 data set. That seismic data set is simulated from a geologic model that includes sub-salt and the most common GOM reservoir, turbidite fans. Now the newer geologic model must address specific shear-wave aspects and precise log analysis, meaning picking a more detailed geologic framework for petrophysics/rock physics not needed in the earlier model. If we are having that level of discussion among the experts, where we know with exact certainty the rocks and their coordinates, then how careful and cautious should we be with our less-than-perfect, real-world well logs and 3D seismic?

2015 ACE. Attention was widespread in technology presentations, not in interpretation, but in analysis of attributes from seismic and better GIS-based analysis of well logs. The best-attended sessions were on database management. The key to the future is finding out who did what and where, with their money, before you do anything with your [company’s] money.

Db issues were not solved with the invention of paper or the computer. This was evident from the exhibitors and their audiences, mainly of international geos and students. The professional papers were poorly attended, with only 70 chairs occupied of the seating for 300. Some papers were impressive, especially one invited paper from SPE on simulation of CO₂ injection into a homogeneous media. Most papers that I attended were not really papers of a high standard for a national or international meeting. Your email bucket has been full this year of “Calls for papers” for about every conference that exists. There is an obvious reason.

What is not new, but seems like a revelation, is based on a reality check at this year’s Denver AAPG meeting. Attendance was down, and we know why. This downturn is somewhat different. People are gone, retired, and not going into environmental, teaching or governmental jobs. The knowledge base is diminishing. In 1994, I heard a V.P. tell his entire Houston staff that he had “700 resumes on his desk, and if anyone did not like the state of affairs, there’s the door.” Over 20% took that option. The number went up to 35% within two years. 

Geology in 2015 is a commodity. Seismic 3D, and now 4D, is a commodity. Boats and crews are as much a commodity to Big Oil as are lawn crews in Houston. About 70% of the fleet is stacked. Yet, no oil company is selling bunkering fuel to a seismic boat at a discount. Management this time is not the geo, or the lawyer, but the accountant. I note that self-destruction is not new to a species. The folks at AAPG, who were doing well, were those who added value that cannot be commoditized—answers to specific problems. Most people still cannot rebuild their own auto engine, no matter how many millions of these have been manufactured.  

About the Authors

William (Bill) Head

Contributing Editor

William (Bill) Head is a technologist with over 40 years of experience in U.S. and international exploration.