Editorial comment ///

I stumbled across some presentations from the March 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2008) by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Some of the data differs markedly from anything that I had seen before and contradicts many recent predictions, even from the EIA itself. All forecasts are to 2030. Many of the forecasts are related to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, but the role that very high prices play is included, such as enabling more production through unconventional resource development and increasing recovery factors, all while dampening demand. For example, US natural gas consumption is expected to remain more or less the same throughout the forecast period, as unconventional gas production increases to 50% of supply, up from today’s 40%, helping to replace a falloff in conventional production. Meanwhile, imports from Canada are nearly wiped out, but LNG imports replace it all.

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