OUTLOOK 2005: International
Global Offshore Drilling

More drilling offshore this year

World Oil’s estimated worldwide offshore drilling – based primarily on survey results – indicates a moderate 6.0% increase to 3,228 wells, continuing last year’s 7.4% forecast boost. In North America, the leading overall drilling area, small drops in the US Gulf and Canada offset Mexico’s increase for essentially a 2004 repeat. A major contributor to the increase is the Far East, with a 14% boost, paced by India and Malaysia. Western Europe’s major driller, the United Kingdom, holds steady. Africa’s increase is helped by Angola and the Congo. And a modest Middle East boost is led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

      US Gulf of Mexico.  World Oil forecasts essentially level activity this year at 830 wells, as operators look for available rigs. Major companies continue to work the deep waters. In late January, 130 of 155 available rigs were under contract for 83.9% utilization, up from 71.8% a year ago. But only 24% of 68 platform-based rigs were contracted. The bulk of the US Gulf is the gas-prone shelf.

      Far East. In this major area, a 14% increase to 919 wells is forecast. Including the Indian Ocean, SE Asia and the Far East, the Offshore Rig Locator (ORL) in early January reported 101 mobile rigs drilling out of 117 total, including 68 jackups, 12 semis and 7 drillships, all up from a year ago. India is the reported leader with a 60% increase to 224 wells, outpacing Indonesia, which is dropping 9.5% to 190. Thailand will add 6% for 177 wells, and Malaysia expects a boost of 25% to 150. China, conversely, expects an 8.2% decrease to 90 offshore wells.

And farther to the southeast, in the South Pacific area, Australia again dominates offshore drilling with a 5% jump to 105 wells. It and New Zealand keep 3 jackups and 5 semis working.

      Western Europe. An increase of 7.4% to 494 offshore wells is expected this year, following somewhat less drilling than forecast for 2004, with no countries expecting decreased activity. The UK, the principal drilling country, will maintain its 250-well level. Norway expects a 10.5% increase to 158 principally development wells. And Denmark and the Netherlands see 21.4% and 38.9% increases to 34 and 25 wells, respectively. The ORL said the North Sea/ Northwest Europe had 65% of 72 mobile rigs active including 27 jackups and 26 semis.

      Africa. This, again, the 4th largest driller, expects a 6.3% increase to 271 wells. The largest country, Egypt, sees a 1 well increase to 75 wells, followed by Nigeria, dropping 10.4% to 60, and Angola, increasing 23.9% to 57. A long list of “others” will contribute 36 wells, and Gabon and the Congo will add 17 and 15, respectively, with the Congo expecting a 200% increase from 5 wells. ORL notes that West Africa has 41 mobile rigs out of 49 working, including 17 jackups, 14 semis and 6 drillships.

In the Middle East, a 6.4% increase to 167 offshore wells in the Persian Gulf is expected, led again by Qatar with a 12.5% jump to 63, with its major LNG emphasis, followed by Iran with a slight decrease to 40. Saudi Arabia, with its many established Persian Gulf oil fields, will increase its offshore drilling 28% to 32 wells. And Abu Dhabi, a major 2-million bpd oil producer, will maintain steady offshore drilling with 18 wells.

      South America expects a two-well drop to 195 wells with a 6.8%, 9-well increase in Brazil to 142 wells offset by a 16-well drop in Trinidad & Tobago. ORL says 6 jackups, 18 semis and 8 drillships are drilling in Brazil.