Sept. 2000 Vol. 221 No. 9  International

Kurt S. Abraham,  Managing/International Editor

Arabic producers rumored to be punishing Gore

As our staff puts together this magazine’s issues over a year’s time, we receive quite a few unsolicited tidbits of "intelligence." Many turn out to be too bizarre, but there are the few that eventually bear fruit, prompting us to publish something about them.

It is into the latter category that the latest tidbit from Middle Eastern sources is falling. Basically, the story is this: Arabic oil-producing nations are enraged that U.S. Vice President / Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore has selected Jewish Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Democrat-Connecticut) to be his running mate for vice president, and they vow to defeat his campaign. How they plan to combat Gore’s bid is what got our attention.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (AP Photo / Fox News Sunday)

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez (Reuters photo)

The "plot" supposedly would have Saudi Arabia and its Arabian Gulf allies not only fail to add oil production to the world market (to keep a lid on prices) but actually back output down from its current level. These cuts would not be announced, but their effects certainly would be felt within the global market. Additionally, the recent tour of Middle Eastern producers by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez plays right into the scheme. If U.S. or European leaders complain about oil prices rising rather than falling, then OPEC members can always voice the excuse that Chávez was extremely persuasive in convincing them to steadfastly adhere to their former output quotas. These Gulf producers supposedly believe that their actions will boost average world price to $34/bbl. They reason that this will be sufficient to enrage American consumers, who would then blame President Bill Clinton and Gore for a failed energy policy and, thus, cast their votes in the November election for the Republican candidates, Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. As a result, Lieberman would fail to ascend to the vice presidency – mission accomplished.

To the casual American observer, this may sound wildly convoluted, but there is sufficient evidence to consider. For example, we asked our contributing editor for the Middle East, Dr. A. F. Alhajji, about such a scheme, and he said that he, too, had heard such rumors – and from generally reliable sources. Additionally, the rhetoric coming out of a majority of Arabic media is white-hot with anger and displeasure over Gore’s selection of Lieberman. For example, the Al-Thawra newspaper out of Damascus, Syria, called the choice of Lieberman "an inappropriate option that will reconsider the U.S. role in the peace process." It said that Lieberman "has not come to (the presidential campaign) as an American but rather as a Zionist in a U.S. cloak, and for a defined aim, which is to achieve the Israeli policy targets."

Then there is the commentary from Al-Ittihad, the official Abu Dhabi newspaper, which charged that Lieberman did not wait long to show his true colors. "Joseph Lieberman wasted no time, to call for moving the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, immediately after his nomination was announced. Lieberman, who is the first Jew to run for vice president in the U.S., was quick to reassure the Zionist lobby that he will work to achieve all their targets if elected." However, Al-Ittihad went on to say that whether Gore and Lieberman win or Bush and Cheney prevail, the outcome would be the same. "This simply means that loyalty to Israel by the next U.S. president is (a certainty). If Lieberman becomes the vice president, it is fine with Israel, and if not, it is not that bad (for Israel). What matters here is that the (U.S.) president should be pro-Zionism, even if he is not a Jew."

Based on his daily reading of Arabic newspapers, as well as phone conversations with colleagues in the region, Dr. Alhajji said that Arabic opinions on the Gore / Lieberman ticket fall into three categories. The first, most-numerous group is against Lieberman, not just on grounds of ethnicity but because of the senator’s public stands on key Middle Eastern issues. A second, much-smaller group believes that Lieberman’s selection is a good thing, because if he assumes office, he will have to work hard to show that he can be fair and evenhanded. The third group, a very small minority, believes that the Democratic ticket is simply a matter of U.S. domestic policy and not any other country’s business.

To those folks who believe the Arabic OPEC producers cannot make such a plan to punish Gore work, this editor would simply remind them that nobody believed in March 1999 that the member-countries could adhere to the output reduction pact reached that month, either. Indeed, as this column was being written (mid-August), world oil price was again bouncing around the politically sensitive $30/bbl mark after a short-lived decline in July and early August.

Another Iranian gas find. In an announcement that came too late to be included in our August issue, Iranian state firm NIOC said that it had discovered a new, onshore gas field near the Persian Gulf coast. NIOC’s director of exploration, Mohammad Mohaddes, said Homa field is in a mountainous region in the south of Fars province. He estimated reserves at 6.7 Tcf of sweet gas and 82 million bbl of condensate, and said that about 70% of each are recoverable. Homa field has potential production capacity of 500 MMcfgd and is situated near Tabnak, Iran’s largest onshore, sweet gas field. Mohaddes said Homa would be developed in tandem with Tabnak.