August 1999 Vol. 220 No. 8  Production

Perry A. Fischer,  Engineering Editor

Welcome to a warmer world; global warming’s flip side

Research on this hot topic continues at a rapid pace. Among those who study climate and atmosphere, there is a growing consensus of a few "facts," provided one does not put too fine a decimal point on the conclusions.

On average, the Earth’s glaciers have been receding, atmospheric amounts of greenhouse gases are increasing, oceans have risen 4 to 10 in. and the planet’s temperature has increased 0.3 to 0.6°C during the last century. Twenty years ago, it was generally thought that large-scale global and regional climate change occurred gradually, taking centuries or millennia. Among the most surprising findings since then is that climate can change suddenly, within decades rather than centuries.

Another point of general agreement is best exemplified in the AAPG-published paper, Rate and Magnitude of Past Global Climate Changes, by John P. Bluemle, et al. Drawing on work cited in its 75 references, the paper discusses the myriad of ways science has addressed the entitled topic. These include glacial fluctuations, as evidenced from ice cores (precipitation minus melt), ¹⁸O/O_ice isotope ratios and ice-trapped methane.

The paper further examines the records of sediments, fossil isotope ratios, anthropology, tree growth, and spores and pollen. These investigations turned out to be self-correlating, i.e., although the methodologies were dissimilar, the results were in general agreement.

The authors’ conclusion? "The frequency, rate and magnitude of climate changes during the Holocene (past 11,000 years) do not support the opinion that climate changes observed during the last 100 years are unique or even unusual. Recent fluctuations in temperature, both upward and downward, are well within the limits observed in nature."

However, when the subject of causality is addressed, disagreement widens, even among experts. Recently completed analysis of the Antarctic Vostok ice core, which took six years to drill, shows that greenhouse gases are much higher today than during the past 420,000 years. However, variations in both solar radiation and Earth’s orbit are also well known candidates for causation. And the effect of mountain building, as a CO₂ sink, particularly the Himalayan orogeny, is even less understood.

The word "proof" simply does not apply to global warming or to most atmospheric phenomena that occur in geologic time. Today’s best models fall well short of reliability. But it’s the same uncertainty in cause and effect that have led some to wonder if the Earth is overdue for another ice age, that perhaps the CO₂ buildup has forestalled such an event; and they further speculate on the benefits of global warming.

A small box at the end of Shell’s CO₂ BULLETIN caught this editor’s eye; it suggested a couple of websites.

The first, www.co2science.org, is presided over by Dr. Keith Idso, a botanist, and Dr. Craig Idso, a geographer. Therein the reader will find CO₂ charts from ice cores and elsewhere, fact sheets, a list of "42 positive effects of elevated CO₂ on plants" and other interesting topics.

There is also an editorial on the history of global change. If you are old enough to remember, it used to be about the next impending ice age. Now it’s about global warming, with some predictions calling for global warming followed by cooling.

The second site, hosted by the Greening Earth Society, www.greeningearthsociety.org, sports such topics as Hot Time in Kyoto, Junk Forecasts, Welcome to a Warmer World and Global Warming Gone to the Dogs; the latter is about a mythical conversation between Al Gore and Man-on-the-street. The site is primarily the work of physicist Mark Mills.

Gas recovery project. A new gas-recovery project will develop methods for increasing gas flow from low-permeability formations. The DOE will provide nearly $800,000 to RealTimeZone, a New Mexico business, for development of a data-transmission scheme that will monitor fracturing operations in real time. The company will provide $380,000 of its own money and will be joined by New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Sandia National Laboratories and several oil companies.

The idea envisions blending a low-level gamma-ray emitter into the injection fluid. A battery-powered gamma-ray detector, positioned at the base of the fracture zone, will monitor fracture formation. Data is sent continuously from the detector to a receiver, suspended uphole, which relays the information to the surface. Within seconds, operators would know how the fracture is propagating.

The innovation would give operators a way to make changes in the fracturing process as problems occur, or to stop before fracturing outside the formation.

Honest, I lied. According to various news reports in July, an ironic twist occurred in the ongoing lawsuit, California and the City of Long Beach vs. Exxon. Former Arco executive Harry Anderson confessed, under oath, that during the mi ’80s, Arco posted prices $4 to $5 a bbl lower than fair market value to underpay royalties, the focus of the suit. Anderson was secretary for Arco’s crude-price committee during that time. However, Arco is one of the few major oil companies not being sued or investigated.

This is not the first time Anderson has testified about royalty payments. He testified in 1994, that posted crude prices did represent fair market value. He now says he lied back then out of self-preservation. "My plan was to get to retirement. We had seen on numerous occasions, the nail that stood up getting beat down," Anderson said.

Large settlements from royalty lawsuits are common. An MMS proposal to change the way royalties are calculated — away from posted prices — has been blocked by Congress.

Copyright © 1999 World Oil
Copyright © 1999 Gulf Publishing Company