May 1998 Vol. 219 No. 5  Offshore

Robert E. Snyder,  Editor

NOIA – watching out for you in Washington

The National Ocean Industries Association's 1998 NOIA Annual Meeting was held in Washington, D.C., March 29 – 31, with the largest attendance seen in 10 years. Representing a broad cross section of U.S. operators / contractors / suppliers with offshore interests, the group heard and participated in several panels and presentations, the organization's seven working committees met and worked out new programs, and several members went over to Capitol Hill to meet with key lawmakers.

Low oil prices were of course on everyone's mind, but the group was optimistic about the offshore business. The recent Central Gulf of Mexico Sale 169 indicated operators are keenly interested in deep water, as well as shelf areas. And they acknowledged the fact that U.S. natural gas prices have not followed the downward crude price trend. This is important, because the shelf area of the Gulf is a major gas producing area, with a good marketing infrastructure.

Two speakers on global warming represented two sides of the fence. S. Fred Singer, presently director / president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, challenged the basic legitimacy of the GW brouhaha that came from Kyoto and resulted in a proposed treaty that the U.S. has not yet signed. Singer, author of the book Hot talk, cold science: Global warming's unfinished debate, said the scientific base for GW problems is "outright deception," and that the debate has been turned into a fuzzy economic argument pitting "oil company profits against Mother Theresa."

Singer noted several relevant facts, including the observation that, over the last 20 years, satellites have provided the first true temperature measurements, and they show a slight cooling in the atmosphere, a slight warming of the surface. But no models can explain why — they differ among themselves by 300%. The point is, why believe a "model" if it can't be validated.

A counterpoint presentation by Dirk Forrister, chairman of the White House Climate Change Task Force, was interesting for its contrast. He started out with the assumption that scientists have established that global warming is a serious problem. The risks of inaction, the Kyoto conference experts said, are: extreme weather, floods / droughts, sea level rise, and vector-borne diseases spawned by mosquitoes.

Meanwhile, the Clinton-Administration will probably not submit a treaty for U.S. Senate ratification until next year; and it is unlikely that the Senate would ratify one anyway, especially if any members of that body can see that there is obviously no scientific facts supporting an impending problem in the first place.

And if you have wondered what all of this emerging electronic communication is doing for the U.S. and the world, Strategic Forecaster & Life Style Editor of The Futurist Magazine, David Pearce Snyder has an answer. In a publication called Roller Coaster 2000: Forces re-shaping daily life and work in America, 1990 to 2010, that Snyder overviewed for the group, he says we will finally be "transformed" by 2010.

Starting in 1995, the "constructive" stage of the information revolution finally got underway. Through a series of evolutionary stages, by 2010, Snyder says:

1. 70% of jobs will be earning middle / upper-level incomes,
2. the average business will have half as many employees as in 1980, but there will be twice as many employers,
3. nearly 20% of all workers will be self-employed, with up to one-third working at home,
4. more operations will migrate out of big cities, and
5. information products / services will become the U.S.'s principal commercial output and export, generating 50% of the GNP.

He predicts immigration will surge, with large coastal cities having more than 50% minority populations. And he says, the most important feature of information technology will be "conversational computing," i. e., most routine uses of computers for learning, problem solving and planning will be via verbal exchanges.

In another meeting session, the group got first-hand experience in learning about the lease-sale procedure that accompanies federal offshore sales held periodically for outer continental shelf (OCS) properties. For this experience, five "companies" were created from the session attendees. These companies sat around individual tables; and they were handed packets containing: bid forms, a map of open leases and offsetting production, budget money in million-dollar tickets, and a review of the company and its goals.

Ably overseen by Tom Sellers, Conoco's area manager, state government and public affairs, Austin, Texas, the companies were given 20 minutes to make bids. Seismic data could be purchased and companies could "partner," if they wished. The preparation was fast and furious; deals were made; and the big moment soon arrived.

When the bids were awarded, the company got to "drill" by plunging a white rod into a box sectioned to represent the leases. A dark tip on the rod meant the drillstring had penetrated one of the oil pools strategically located under the box's base. When the drilling was done, my company got a lease, but drilled a duster. Next time I'm joining a deepwater group. They hit bigger, and they went into the sale with much more than our measly $10-million budget.

NOIA's new officers elected at the meeting include: Chairman, William Bradford, Dresser Industries; Vice Chairman, Donald Bollinger, Bollinger Shipyards; Treasurer, Allen Parks, Dain Rauscher Corp.; Ass't Treasurer, Ardon Judd, Dresser Industries; and Secretary, Rusty Meador, Gulf Publishing Co.

NOIA President Bob Stewart and the permanent Washington, D.C.-based staff can be reached for more information on how the group works, or more meeting details, at: Tel. 202 347 6900, Fax: 202 347 8650, E-mail: noia@noia.org.

Copyright © 1999 World Oil
Copyright © 1999 Gulf Publishing Company