Energy Issues

An integral part of Artificial Intelligence (AI), these robots, which control many processes in our daily lives, appear to have developed the ability to communicate beyond our understanding, in their own languages. This could be the scenario of many a Sci Fi movie, in which robots take over the earth. While this may be a bit far-fetched—at the moment—the threat is real, according to more than a few pundits.

It’s all around you. If this threat doesn’t worry you, take a look at your children or grandchildren. If they are like most, including mine, their focus is squarely on their connection to an electronic world accessed through smart phones. On second thought, don’t worry about your children. Just mind the road when you drive because the chances are that someone (often a lot more than someone) in your proximity is in his or her own electronic world and impervious to the dangers of the surrounding traffic.

But I may have been premature, over-reactive or even unfair in my assessments. AI is also ripe with benefits. According to Noah Zandan, writing for Quantified Communications (https://www.quantifiedcommunications.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-in-communication), “Although the term may still conjure up sci-fi images of robots gone rogue, AI, as it is often called for short, is actually far less terrifying. With the development of AI, computer systems can complete or augment tasks that would require human intelligence—at a much larger scale than we could on our own—in fields that include speech recognition, visual perception and decision-making.”

That may be selling the issue a bit short though, as Matt Chessen, Senior Technology Policy Advisor at the U.S. Department of State, noted in a paper posted on the Atlantic Council website. He said in 2017 that machine-driven communications tools are a reality now, and artificial intelligence-enabled tools will soon dominate the online information space.

“This paradigm shift isn’t limited to artificial personal assistants like Siri and recreational chatbots like Xiaoice,” continued Chessen. “It refers to machine-driven communication overwhelming Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Match, Reddit, chat rooms, news site comment sections, and the rest of the social web. All of it will be dominated by machines talking. This machine communication will be nearly indistinguishable from human communication. The machines will be trying to persuade, sell, deceive, intimidate, manipulate, and cajole you into whatever response they’re programmed to elicit. They will be unbelievably effective.”

What does this all have to do with us and the upstream industry? We, of course, are as vulnerable as anyone else, even though very sophisticated protection systems are in place in a good deal of the industry. I believe, given this, that the solution lies in direct communication between real people. It’s getting more difficult, but it is getting much more important.

As an example, I belong to SPE’s Drilling Digest group. That program creates a safe (as safe as you can get) digital platform for the exchange of information and ideas (from well control to bit recommendations) between drilling folks. Even better—hold your technical and professional conversations with real people, face to face.

Next week, I am headed to the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. I used to go to catch up on all of the new technology. It’s a great place to do that. But, more recently, I have attended to exchange ideas and opinions in a face-to-face environment. Sure, the technology is valuable but the insight provided by conversations with colleagues, industry experts and new friends is invaluable. The same can be said for SPE’s Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, or similar conferences sponsored by SEG, NOIA, IADC or any of the numerous other professional societies.

Need something a little less expensive and a bit closer to home? Try the monthly meetings of your local chapter of the larger organizations, such as the Houston Chapter of SPE. Whatever the venue or whatever the method, try to connect with other professionals personally. Their knowledge and insights could be the most important information you receive and/or a solution to your most pressing problems. It looks like you can’t avoid the AI world, but you can check out long enough to touch base with reality and the people in it.

I’ve been there. Recent news in the industry has taken note of the rise of the Permian basin to new heights. A good part of my career was spent there. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the area was struggling after impressive post-WWII production numbers. Most of the fields I worked in were populated with stripper wells. One field produced about 1,600 bopd from 500-plus wells. Sure, we knew something about the shale formations back then, but not how to produce them.

Now, the Permian shale play is all about setting records. The region will probably become the world’s largest oil patch over the next decade. Output in the basin is forecast to reach 3.18 MMbopd in May, according to EIA. That’s the highest since the agency began compiling records in 2007. “Technology is the biggest driver,” said Rob Thummel, managing director at Tortoise, which handles $16 billion in energy-related assets. “The basin, in and of itself, could end up being the largest oil field in the world." By contrast, top-producing members of OPEC, such as Iran and Iraq, pump less than 5 MMbopd. Iran produced about 3.81 MMbopd in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “If the Permian was part of OPEC, it would be the fourth-largest OPEC member, right behind Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq,” Thummel said. 

About the Authors

William J. Pike

World Oil

William J. Pike has 47 years’ experience in the upstream oil and gas industry, and serves as Chairman of the World Oil Editorial Advisory Board.