Accurate modeling improves early production predictions ///

For years, oilfield service companies have been claiming the ability to predict unconventional well production using reservoir models. The claim is true; they can predict production—just not very accurately. And operators know it. “All companies have a reservoir model; but oftentimes they are not very reliable at predicting detailed production,” Casey Lipp, a geologist at Peregrine Petroleum, said. The main reason for this unreliability is the inability of the models to simulate fractures. Current models assume that all fractures along a wellbore are planar and simple, with the same height, length and permeability. Using these simple fracture models in a reservoir simulation multiplies inaccuracies.

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