Crude and condensate. Early results from December show that US crude production in 2008 fell only slightly, by 0.6%. And this was despite record oil prices that peaked at over $140/bbl. By any measure, US oil production has been going sideways for three years in a row. However, if not for hurricanes Ike and Gustav, the production decline would have been halted. Also absent the hurricanes, Lower 48 production would have eked out a small gain.

Alaska lost 3.9%, or 28,000 bpd, in production. The state is a perennial loser and shows no signs of reversing that trend. There are at least 200 million bbl of liquids at Point Thompson, but ExxonMobil lost the lease due to inactivity and is fighting in the courts to regain it. There are also an estimated 25 billion bbl of heavy oil, with a “guesstimated” 7 billion bbl recoverable. The 2.1 million-bpd capacity of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System remains grossly underutilized at today’s 700,000-bopd rates.

US crude and condensate production by state

Missouri’s oil production soared last year in percentage terms, although it is still a tiny amount. Calgary, Alberta-based firm MegaWest Energy had an active SAGD operation ongoing there, but low oil prices at year-end 2008 caused the company to shut it down.

Light oil and some gas are being produced in several members of the Bakken Formation, especially in North Dakota. A re-assessment of the formation last year showed some 3.0−4.3 billion bbl of technically recoverable oil.

Natural gas. Preliminary year-end natural gas data indicate that production was slightly up in 2008, which is the third year of increase. It’s been up before in the 1999-2001 period, and in any event, when imports and Canada’s domestic needs are accounted for, the supply-demand picture doesn’t seem too bad with respect to prices over the coming year. Nevertheless, EIA has a new forecast out that say the US will be nearly gas independent in 21 years due to growth in unconventional gas plays and LNG imports. As seen in the graph, production has remained relatively flat since 1994, hovering around 20 Tcf. Current production is not due to lack of effort, as it requires three times as many gas wells to be drilled today as it did in 1999 just to keep production flat.