Predicting production performance using a simplified model ///

One of the most important tasks of the petroleum engineer is predicting the amount of oil and gas that will be recovered from a reservoir. Choosing the methodology is critical for accurate forecasts that are, in turn, vital for sound managerial planning. Decline curves are widely used to convey information about past production performance and to forecast future performance and reserves. A new model for decline curve analysis has been developed. The new model uses an exponential decline to extrapolate a hyperbolic decline to prevent unrealistically long lifetime and reserve estimates. INTRODUCTION Management needs to reduce the risks associated with decision making, and one of the ways in which this can be done is by anticipating future well performance more clearly. Extrapolation of production history has long been considered the most accurate and defendable method of estimating remaining recoverable reserve from a well and, in turn, a reservoir.

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