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A 50/50 oil market. Consumers around the world are now facing a “50/50 oil market,” according to Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). “There is now a 50/50 probability that the price of oil will reach $50/bbl within the next 50 days,” he said.
A price spike to $50 would be likely to occur if one or more supply disruptions removes 500,000 to 750,000 bopd from the market for several weeks. This is possible because, “The world has one of the smallest cushions ever for absorbing a loss of supply, while demand growth is the strongest in a generation. These conditions mean the world oil market is even tighter now than it was during the 1973 oil crisis.
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