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October global oil supply increased by 1.79 million bpd to 86.46 million bpd, with the largest increase seen in the US as Gulf of Mexico production came back onstream after outages resulting from recent hurricanes.
Crude prices have continued to fall from their highs in previous months. WTI crude averaged about $76 per bbl in October, falling from its high of about $133 per bbl in July. As of printing, WTI was averaging about $50 per bbl.
The current global economic downturn has led to a decrease in energy demand. The IEA recently revised its 2008 and 2009 demand forecasts downward by 330,000 bpd and 670,000 bpd, respectively. Demand is now expected to grow by 120,000 bpd in 2008, to 86.2 million bpd, and by 350,000 bpd in 2009, to 86.5 million bpd. Fourth-quarter global refinery throughput is forecast to average 73.5 million bpd, about 1.4 million bpd lower than IEA’s previous forecast.
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