Press Esc to close



For full content view: Log in Now!

  • United Kingdom: Assessing the real risk in well construction

    Engineers want certainty in their jobs, and that certainly applies to drilling engineers. They create graphs of costs and times based on projected ROPs, mobilization and performance of equipment and manpower, as well as planning for known contingencies. To plan simply and rationally, they think in terms of known quantities, for example, a graph that represents cumulative costs or progress toward TD. Somewhere in the back of their minds, they are aware that each point on a predictive graph should carry an error bar, that is, some amount of uncertainty – a plus and minus about a point that, in effect, blurs the comforting feeling of a well-made plan. There's a human need for certainty that causes a psychological phenomena. First, ask an engineer for a value, say, time to TD. Suppose he answers, “42 days.” Then ask him to add a range of uncertainty. Suppose he answers, “38 to 45 days.” Now let's change the ordering of the questions. First, ask him for a range, and then calculate the mean. The mean might stay the same, but it is likely that the range will be wider than when his thought processes began with a commitment to a particular number. Stripped to its essence, this, according to CEO Andrew Paterson, is the idea behind a new breed of software that is helping drilling and oil firms quantify and appreciate the full range of uncertainty that underlies their operations. This software, called P1 (and now, P1v2), is from Aberdeen-based The Peak Group.

This area of the site is restricted. In order to gain access, please either Log In, or subscribe to World Oil.

Two options are available to you for creating an account.

1. Get a Free Trial Subscription to World Oil Magazine and gain immediate access to select content on World Oil Online.

Start a Free Trial Subscription and gain immediate access to the complete current issue of World Oil Magazine. Plus, you’ll receive 3 upcoming issues of World Oil Magazine in print or digital format.* You also receive access to the Energy Events Calendar, Industry Statistics and WO Wire’s news and industry coverage.

Free Trial

2. Purchase a subscription to World Oil magazine and gain immediate and complete access to World Oil Online. As a Total Access subscriber you will have access to all areas of the site available to registered users and free subscribers as well as having access to such premium content areas as:

  • The Archives section containing over ten years of complete magazine archives,
  • The WO DataHub's engineering tables and directories,
  • The World Oil annual forecasts, including past predictions,
  • Select World Oil technical handbooks,
  • And much, much more!


Physical copies of this content may be available for purchase. Visit the Reprints & Back Issues section.

If you are already a paid subscriber and do not have access, please email



Engineering Data Tables

World Oil's specialized upstream Engineering Data Tables featuring the Drill Bit Classifier, Tubing Tables and more. Get Total Access today.


2013 Fracturing Technology

2013 Fracturing Technology